For Another Regime Change

Written by The Son Of the Khmer Empire

December 21, 2009 at 8:20pm

លោកបងAbhishit and លោកបងHun Sen

Prime minister Hun Sen is perpetuating an international strategy for a regime change that has time and again brought disasters to Cambodia. He has involved Cambodia in a push for a new government in Thailand. He declares the relations with Thailand will only be normalised if prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is voted out of office.

However, Hun Sen’s beneficiary, deposed Thai prime minister Thaksin may not be strong enough to regain power. Their footwork so far may look interesting, and make some Cambodians proud of their prime minister, but Thai opinion leaders believe the conflict has overall benefited the Abhisit government: its popularity has improved; Thaksin becomes a perfect decoy to divert attention from the government’s failure to revive the economy; and Thaksin can now be blamed for any economic fiasco.

Meanwhile, Thaksin has some serious personal problems. First, he may be burnt by the Dubai World financial mess that has recently flared up. Judging by his ego and eagerness to please the Dubai investment community and make his presence as a billionaire felt, his investments in real estate projects, financial, and debt instruments in Dubai must be sizeable. Thus, the Dubai trouble is likely to rattle Thaksin. And his other assets amounting to 76 billion bahts (US$2.28 billion) have been frozen by the Thai authority, waiting for a court verdict later this month that can remove his fortune forever.

Second, it is possible he will lose his residency in Dubai, which is an emirate in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). He may be violating the UAE’s principle that allows nobody to use the UAE as a political base to attack other countries. And Thailand has actively sought the UAE’s assistance to bring Thaksin to serve a jail term for corruption, eventhough there is no extradition treaty between the two countries.

Thus, Thaksin could be broke and homeless, which is not an encouraging prospect for the man who has relied wholly on wealth to buy his way into power. Still, politics is such a fluid state of art that Thaksin may make a comeback – at least that is what Hun Sen is working on. Of course, Hun Sen can do more to help; he can follow his predecessors by allowing his friend to use Cambodian soil to launch his campaign to regain power.

In return for his effort, Hun Sen must expect rewards from Thaksin, who is right that “Everything depends on benefits”, similar to the way Vietnam has received from Hun Sen tributes for securing his power in Cambodia. And the benefit must be substantial for Hun Sen to be so committed to the Thaksin cause.

Nevertheless, while Hun Sen can enjoy the benefit, Cambodians may again begin to suffer, particularly when a Thaksin campaign from Cambodia provokes a Thai military response. Cambodian leaders in the past sixty years do not have a good record of ensuring their foreign friends they help will not, in return, plunge Cambodia into war and devastations before and after their successful regime change.

Quotable Quotes:

“Alms given openly will be rewarded in secret.” Anonymous. Chinese proverb.